Rails, Trails, Bicycles and Buses

What will Durham be like when gas hits $6/gallon? That's a question I've been contemplating for some time now, but one which used to get me a lot of funny looks prior to the last two months.

There's been a big push in the region to convert old railbeds to walking & bicycling trails, like (much of) the American Tobacco Trail. Rails-to-Trails is a national phenomenon, so I'm not trying to unfairly burden Durham or even Raleigh on this one. However, it doesn't take a lot of foresight to realize that Norfolk Southern may not be as quick to sell off perfectly good tracks anymore. One of the "unfinished trails" often discussed by those who follow such things in the Bull City is the Duke Beltline: a rails-to-trails project encompassing the trackline that runs through Old North Durham and near the DAP. Trails aficionados lament that NS has asked "too much" for the property. Yet I am coming to the opinion that Durham may be better off in the end for it NOT having been sold off, as it may be one key component of revitalizing the rail infrastructure of Durham for a post-Peak Oil world.

While many of Durham's best and brightest are struggling to get NCDOT to remove turning lanes from the proposed Alston Ave widening project, I'm thinking ahead to the time when such automobile-centric projects are revealed as the grandiose boondoggles of waste they are at the core. Automobile-based commuting is nearing its End Of Life, to talk in software-geek terms. Every extra dollar per gallon is going to start exponentially increasing the outcry for bike lanes, better buses, and commuter rail. More than likely, it will be the rail infrastructure that was NOT converted to trails that will be pressed into service to host that commuter rail. It will help - but it can't carry everybody and every THING everywhere.

Even if we striped bike lanes on every street in Durham, even if we somehow resurrected the long-departed downtown streetcar system, we still have another problem: RTP is ten miles away from most of Durham, but it's even farther from most of Raleigh. And because it was built long after the car became King, the infrastructure there is pedestrian- and mass transit-unfriendly. Every building has a sea of parking around it, padded by a ring of "managed green space." (managed usually meaning controlled monocultures carefully cultivated by low-wage-paying corporate landscapers, but thats another story) It could take half an hour to walk to your building from the closest bus stop - and what about trying to get to work on rail & foot alone? Eeep.

Not to mention, those who are forced by poverty or misfortune to have to ride Durham's currently available public transportation are nearly unanimous in their condemnation of the system. It's barely adequate for basic transport today, and is probably going to be unable to cope with the massive increase in ridership we are on the verge of seeing. It's much more likely that we will start to see more "underground" transportation resources emerge, like private buses, along with major increases in bicycling as a daily necessity rather than a weekend pleasure activity.

As those who moved to the exurbs but work in RTP are faced with skyrocketing fuel costs, I expect many will try to move closer to their jobs. That means Morrisville and Durham will be in line for a lot of growth, even if the economy itself isn't doing so well. A lot of expensive exurban houses are going to be foreclosed on, and a lot of currently-cheaper housing in town is going to become a lot more valuable.

Durham's push to bring businesses back into downtown will pay off handsomely, I expect, as more people seek to live near where they work, and shop near where they live. It's no wonder Cleveland-Holloway is the Neighborhood To Watch right now - it's so darn close to downtown, and so much of its infrastructure was built prior to the Auto Era, that it looks better and better all the time.

However, this sort of "gentrification" may very well lead to more class- and race-based tension in the city, as the really poor inner-city urbanites left behind by discriminatory policies of the 60's & 70's are forced to compete for housing, food, and public transportation with the (formerly?) middle-class newcomers.

Durham is going to have a lot of work to do if we are to manage this transition with any sort of aplomb. We are going to need skilled community leaders who can bring multiple parties to the table, who care about the people - ALL the people - more than lining their own pockets or stoking their own egos, and who can see far enough into the future to understand that massive change is headed our way. More exurbs are the LAST thing Durham is going to need in ten years. It's time to disconnect "development" from "bulldozer" and recouple it with "community."